By Chinedu Okafor | SaharaNews247 — September 1, 2025 (Lagos, Nigeria)
Former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai has raised the stakes in Nigeria’s political arena with a fiery declaration that he and other founding members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) know “where the dead body is buried” and are ready to “retire” President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
The comments, made over the weekend, immediately sent shockwaves across the Nigerian political landscape. They not only signal a direct confrontation with the ruling party but also highlight the growing cracks within the APC coalition as the country inches closer to another pivotal general election.
El-Rufai’s Challenge to Tinubu
El-Rufai’s words carried both symbolism and threat. He argued that the insiders who built the APC understand its inner workings well enough to bring it down.
“We formed the APC; we know where the dead body is buried. Together we can face APC. We know what is required to retire the ruling party,” he declared.
This statement was paired with a stinging criticism of Tinubu’s administration. El-Rufai accused the government of worsening Nigeria’s economic woes and failing to secure the country, insisting that the situation has deteriorated since Tinubu took office in May 2023.
Why This Statement Matters
Nigeria’s next general election is not until 2027, but the political season has already begun in earnest. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has yet to release the official timetable, yet alliances are being formed, defections plotted, and campaign narratives tested.
El-Rufai’s warning is important for several reasons:
It reveals deep fractures within the APC’s founding coalition.
It positions him as a central figure in the anti-Tinubu camp.
It sets the stage for a potentially unprecedented early campaign season.
With Nigeria facing high inflation, naira volatility, fuel price instability, and rising insecurity, El-Rufai is betting that popular frustration can be turned into political capital.
APC’s Journey: From 2015 Victory to 2025 Crisis
To understand El-Rufai’s position, it is important to trace the APC’s trajectory.
2013–2015: The APC was formed from a merger of major opposition parties — CPC, ACN, ANPP, and a faction of APGA. With the defection of influential PDP members, the APC became the first successful opposition party to defeat an incumbent president in Nigeria.
2015: Muhammadu Buhari’s election marked the APC’s rise, promising change and reform.
2019: Buhari won re-election, but public dissatisfaction grew over insecurity and economic struggles.
2023: Bola Tinubu, one of the APC’s founding leaders, won the presidency but with a narrower margin compared to Buhari’s earlier victories. Many voters supported third-force candidates like Peter Obi, signaling the electorate’s growing appetite for alternatives.
2025: The APC remains in power, but cracks are widening. Internal divisions, economic pressures, and leadership struggles are beginning to threaten its dominance.
El-Rufai’s statement taps into this trajectory, portraying the APC as a house built on shaky foundations — and one that he claims to know how to dismantle.
The Political Map Behind El-Rufai’s Gambit
The Insider’s Advantage
El-Rufai is not just another opposition voice. He is a founding architect of the APC and understands the power dynamics that brought it to life. His declaration suggests he intends to use this insider knowledge to exploit the party’s vulnerabilities.
The Coalition Puzzle
For El-Rufai to succeed, he must unite Nigeria’s fragmented opposition. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been mentioned as a possible rallying point, but divisions within its state chapters reveal how fragile such alliances can be.
History offers a lesson here. In 2015, Buhari’s APC defeated Goodluck Jonathan largely because opposition parties united under one banner. A divided opposition in 2027 could again give the APC the upper hand.
Northern Political Calculations
Northern Nigeria will play a decisive role in the 2027 elections. El-Rufai has hinted that Tinubu could be treated like Jonathan — a one-term president. If northern political heavyweights withdraw their support, Tinubu’s path to re-election could become extremely difficult.
From Ally to Opponent
El-Rufai’s political evolution is striking. Once a close ally of Tinubu, he now stands among his fiercest critics.
Earlier this year, he described Tinubu’s cabinet as “bloated and lacking in quality,” signaling his disapproval of the president’s leadership style. He has been linked with potential moves to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the ADC, though these reports have been met with mixed denials and confirmations.
At the same time, El-Rufai has been careful to protect his credibility. He has publicly disowned fake statements attributed to him online, emphasizing that Nigerians should rely only on his verified communication channels.
This evolution shows how fragile political alliances can be in Nigeria, where today’s ally can quickly become tomorrow’s adversary.
Can El-Rufai Really Retire Tinubu?
Factors Working in His Favor
Insider Knowledge: As a co-founder of APC, he understands its weaknesses better than most.
Public Discontent: Rising inflation, insecurity, and unemployment create fertile ground for opposition messaging.
Northern Networks: El-Rufai has strong connections across northern Nigeria, which remains critical in election outcomes.
Factors Working Against Him
Fragmented Opposition: Without a united opposition, APC could benefit from divided votes.
Incumbency Power: Tinubu retains access to federal resources, state machinery, and a well-established grassroots network.
Credibility Questions: Critics argue El-Rufai must present concrete policy alternatives, not just anti-Tinubu rhetoric.
Historical Lessons from Nigerian Politics
Nigeria’s political history offers several lessons relevant to El-Rufai’s ambition:
1993 Election: Moshood Abiola’s annulled victory showed the power of coalition-building and cross-regional appeal.
2007 Transition: The PDP retained power through incumbency, despite internal fractures.
2015 Election: Unity among opposition forces, particularly the merger that birthed the APC, proved decisive in unseating Goodluck Jonathan.
2023 Election: A fragmented opposition nearly toppled the APC, with Peter Obi’s Labour Party showing that a credible third force could reshape Nigeria’s politics.
For El-Rufai, the clear lesson is that only a disciplined, united opposition can realistically defeat Tinubu and the APC in 2027.
What to Watch Ahead of 2027
1. Coalition Building: Can El-Rufai, Labour Party, PDP, and ADC leaders overcome egos to present a single candidate?
2. Regional Alignments: The North’s stance on Tinubu’s re-election will be decisive.
3. Economic Indicators: Inflation, fuel prices, and naira stability will heavily influence voter sentiment.
4. Policy Clarity: Will El-Rufai present a detailed economic and security blueprint, or remain focused on rhetoric?
SaharaNews247 Analysis
El-Rufai’s vow to “retire” Tinubu is strategically timed. By painting himself as both an insider and an outsider, he appeals to those frustrated with APC but skeptical of the existing opposition.
Still, his chances depend on whether rhetoric can be transformed into action. Without a united coalition and a clear rescue plan for Nigeria’s economy and security, Tinubu and the APC will continue to hold the advantage.
Nigeria’s 2027 election is shaping up to be a defining contest. El-Rufai’s bold statement is just the beginning of what promises to be a turbulent political journey.
Author Bio
Chinedu Okafor is a political economy reporter with SaharaNews247. He covers governance, elections, and fiscal reforms across West Africa. His work focuses on accountability, economic policy, and electoral dynamics. Chinedu has written for several independent outlets and has been a panelist at civic forums on democracy and reform.
